Saturday Slate
New York Knicks +2.5
NBA · 8:00 ET · Spread · New York @ Cleveland · @ 52.75 cents · 1u
A desperate Cavaliers team is dangerous, but the Knicks have a structural defensive advantage
The Knicks defensive scheme is an ideal counter to the Cavaliers, and defense travels.
New York switches everything on the perimeter, and Cleveland has no clean answer for it. Mitchell has spent two games trying to beat Bridges and Anunoby off the dribble and arriving at contested mid-range jumpers. That is not coverage that breaks under home crowd energy - it's a scheme that requires personnel Cleveland doesn't have.
New York vs Cleveland Over 213.5
NBA · 8:00 ET · Total · New York @ Cleveland · @ 56.74 cents · 1u
The series average sits at 210.5, but Cleveland's desperate home environment with full crowd energy should help them elevate pace and improve their perimeter shot-making and while it likely won't be enough for them to cover the spread, it should be enough to hit the over.
St Louis Cardinals ML
MLB · 1:10 ET · Moneyline · St Louis @ Cincinnati · @ 50.75 cents · 1u
Neither starting pitcher is elite, but the depth of the Cardinals line-up and bull pen availability suggest a 55% win probability available at essentially even money.
The Cardinals lineup is deeper and steadier, and the bullpen is better rested.
Cincinnati has more power but their line-up is top-heavy. After the top 5, their lineup falls off sharply (Hayes 0.165, Stephenson 0.181, Friedl 0.214). The Cardinals have more depth, lower K rates and over-all higher quality line-up (STL 102.6 wRC v. CIN 94.4). On the mound, Paddack (Reds SP) has only one quality start in 13 outings, and his 66.4 pitch baseline is likely to force the Reds into 4-5 innings of relief with a bullpen showing signs of structural fatigue.
St Louis Cardinals First 5
MLB · 1:10 ET · First 5 Innings · St Louis @ Cincinnati · @ 44.72 cents · 1u
The bullpen structural mismatch is unlikely to show up until the 5th or 6th inning, but at plus-money, the Cardinals line-up advantage is worth backing.
New York Yankees ML
MLB · 1:10 ET · Moneyline · Tampa Bay @ New York Y · @ 58.72 cents · 1u
The market is focused on Weathers' (New York SP) 5.12 ERA, but his 2.76 xFIP, 2.91 SIERA, 11.34 K/9 and 2.35 BB/9 are elite. And while, Rasmussen's (Tampa Bay SP) command profile is excellent (1.90 BB/9 and K-BB ratio of 4.31), his vulnerability is his HR/9 of 1.46, which is structurally bad news at Yankee Stadium with NYY's left-handed power and HR-factor_L=112.
New York Yankees -1.5
MLB · 1:10 ET · Runline · Tampa Bay @ New York Y · @ 39.17 cents · 0.75u
New York Yankees over 3.5 runs
MLB · 1:10 ET · Total · Tampa Bay @ New York Y · @ 59.33 cents · 1.5u
Chicago Cubs -1.5
MLB · 1:10 ET · Runline · Houston @ Chicago C · @ 42.70 cents · 0.75u
Chicago has lost 6 straight and their offense is sputtering (averaging 3.3 runs over their last 10), but their underlying lineup quality and the Houston roster missing Altuve, Correa, Diaz and Trammell are being mispriced. We have the Cubs winning by 2+ runs 49% of the time vs a market implied 43%.
Pittsburgh Pirates ML
MLB · 1:07 ET · Moneyline · Pittsburgh @ Toronto · @ 60.69 cents · 1u
This is the cleanest pitching mismatch on the slate, and we see a win-rate between 67-72% vs a market implied 60-61%.
Paul Skenes is throwing the best stuff in baseball, while Corbin has zero quality starts in eight tries.
Skenes' (Pirates SP) metrics are as good as any pitcher in baseball (xERA 2.08, SIERA 2.65, a 10.6 K/9 with a 5:1K/BB ratio, and a 12.1 whiff rate. And he'll face a Toronto lineup that owns a 90.9 wRC+ (well below league average). On the other side, Corbin (Blue Jays SP) has an xERA of 6.38 and he'll face a Pittsburgh offense with a 104.6 wRC+ with a history of punishing four-seam-and-slider lefties without command.
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
MLB · 1:07 ET · Runline · Pittsburgh @ Toronto · @ 46.74 cents · 1u
This is the cleanest pitching mismatch on the slate, and we see a 2+ run win-rate of 52% vs a market implied 46-47%.
Cleveland Indians ML
MLB · 4:05 ET · Moneyline · Cleveland @ Philadelphia · @ 38.63 cents · 0.75u
The market is focused on Wheeler's impressive return to-date (2.02 ERA) but it is only a 31-inning sample. Meanwhile Cleveland is on a seven-game heater with their pitching staff shutting down opponents (1.6 R/G allowed last 5) and their offense clicking (Ramirez, Rocchio, DeLauter all hitting). Take the team playing better baseball at a heavy discount.
Cleveland Indians +1.5
MLB · 4:05 ET · Runline · Cleveland @ Philadelphia · @ 57.73 cents · 1u
The market is focused on Wheeler's impressive return to-date (2.02 ERA) but it is only a 31-inning sample. Meanwhile Cleveland is on a seven-game heater with their pitching staff shutting down opponents (1.6 R/G allowed last 5) and their offense clicking (Ramirez, Rocchio, DeLauter all hitting). Take the team playing better baseball at a heavy discount.
Chicago WhiteSox ML
MLB · 4:05 ET · Moneyline · Chicago WS @ San Francisco · @ 49.75 cents · 1u
Starting pitcher quality, line-up quality and recent form all favor the underdog on the road.
Hudson only has 23.3 IP as a starter in 2026 but his peripherals are significantly stronger than Houser's.
Hudson's (Chicago WS SP) xFIP 3.84 / SIERA 3.57 / xERA 3.02 / FIP 2.80 / 30.5% CSW% significantly outmatch Houser's (San Francisco SP) xFIP 4.88 / SIERA 5.17 / xERA 5.81 / FIP 5.50 / 23.3% CSW%. These metrics alone suggest a 1.0-1.3 R/9 expected differential.
Lineup quality and health favor the White Sox.
CWS wRC+ 105.2 vs SF wRC 88.6 even before injuries - and the Giants have Lee, Ramos and Bader out forcing them to field a lineup centered on a slumping Adames (0.217), Devers (0.236 with 32.7% K vs LHP) and rookies.
Momentum also favors the White Sox.
The White Sox have won 7 of their last 10, while the Giants have lost 7 of 10 and 4 straight.
Miami Marlins ML
MLB · 4:10 ET · Moneyline · New York M @ Miami · @ 52.74 cents · 1u
Gutted by injury, the Mets are running out a lineup 10 wRC+ below Miami, this is structural edge suggesting the Marlins win 56% of the time v. a market priced between 52-53%.
Washington Nationals +1.5
MLB · 4:10 ET · Runline · Washington @ Atlanta · @ 54.75 cents · 1u
The market is pricing Atlanta's record and momentum, and rewarding their starting pitcher's shiny 3.15 ERA but the underlying peripherals suggest regression (xFIP 4.49 and SIERA 4.72). Conversely, Irvin owns a 4.86 ERA but a 4.00 SIERA and an impressive 10.02 K/9. Layer on Atlanta's injury concerns and the market is pricing a pitching and lineup differential that isn't there. Take the runs and a projected 57.4% cover rate.
Seattle Mariners ML
MLB · 4:10 ET · Moneyline · Seattle @ Kansas City · @ 58.72 cents · 1u
Kansas City is in free fall – 1-9 over their last 10, averaging 2.5 runs per game, riding a 4 game losing streak, and they face a pitcher whose 39.3% chase rate is tailor-made to exploit a lineup with an almost 27% strikeout rate over the last 3 games.
Seattle Mariners -1.5
MLB · 4:10 ET · Runline · Seattle @ Kansas City · @ 46.74 cents · 1u
Kansas City is in free fall – 1-9 over their last 10, averaging 2.5 runs per game, riding a 4 game losing streak, and they face a pitcher whose 39.3% chase rate is tailor-made to exploit a lineup with an almost 27% strikeout rate over the last 3 games.
Milwaukee Brewers ML
MLB · 7:15 ET · Moneyline · Los Angeles D @ Milwaukee · @ 48.75 cents · 1u
Sasaki (Dodgers SP) has a talent-rich profile that hasn't translated on the field. ERA 7.07, WHIP 1.715, HR/9 2.05. His primary weapon is the splitter but he hasn't been able to control it and walks have been an issue. Both pitchers project to exit by the 5th inning creating additional value on the Brewers and their more rested bullpen. Take the home team at plus money.
San Diego Padres
MLB · 9:40 ET · Moneyline · A's @ San Diego · @ 52.75 cents · 1u
Petco Park's 94 HR Factor coupled with what is likely to be cool, damp, dead air, strips the A's of their primary offensive weapon, and San Diego's bullpen - anchored by Mason Miller (1.09 ERA, 18.22 K/9) plus rested setup arms is materially better than Oakland's bridge group. The combination projects a 56.6% win probability for the home team.
Texas Rangers ML
MLB · 10:05 ET · Moneyline · Texas @ Los Angeles · @ 57.73 cents · 1u
The Angels have lost 9 of their last 10 and only scored 2.4 RPG during that stretch. They are unlikely to get back on track against Evoldi's ace-tier xFIP of 3.17. On the other side, Urena surface ERA may read like a quality starter, but his command profile (4.6 walks per ning) and his expected runs (xFIP 4.49) suggest regression. Against a Texas lineup that walks 115 of the time and hits 0.311 at the top of the order, Urena's lack of zone control is likely to get exposed. The bullpen ERA differential (3.85 v 5.21) is likely to widen the gap as the game goes on.
Texas Rangers ML
MLB · 10:05 ET · Spread · Texas @ Los Angeles · @ 44.72 cents · 1u
The Angels have lost 9 of their last 10 and only scored 2.4 RPG during that stretch. They are unlikely to get back on track against Evoldi's ace-tier xFIP of 3.17. On the other side, Urena surface ERA may read like a quality starter, but his command profile (4.6 walks per ning) and his expected runs (xFIP 4.49) suggest regression. Against a Texas lineup that walks 115 of the time and hits 0.311 at the top of the order, Urena's lack of zone control is likely to get exposed. The bullpen ERA differential (3.85 v 5.21) is likely to widen the gap as the game goes on.
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5
MLB · 10:10 ET · Spread · Colorado @ Arizona · @ 46.74 cents · 1u
Arizona is the better team around pitching, lineup and bullpen and this is the type of match-up profile that signals multi-run margins. Gallen (Arizona SP) doesn't have great numbers but his underlying contact quality should generate a full run of expected value v. Lorenzen (Colorado SP), and the bullpen differential should compound the starter gap.
Minnesota Lynx vs Chicago Sky Under 172.5
WNBA · 1:o0 ET · Total · Minnesota @ Chicago · @ 62.67 cents · 1u
These two teams played six days ago where Chicago won 86-79 for a total of 165. Since then, Chicago lost its leading scorer (Rickea Jackson 22 PPG) to a season-ending ACL. Minnesota comes in hot averaging 89 PPG but their 51% FG rate is likely to regress and Chicago is likely to struggle to replace Jackson's scoring. We see a game in the mid-160s as most likely, so 172.5 provides cushion.
Toronto Tempo -3.5
WNBA · 6:o0 ET · Total · Portland @ Toronto · @ 60.69 cents · 1u
Toronto is the more talented team, more veteran team and it's home, coming off an embarrassing 100-72 no-show against Minnesota. This is a classic bounce-back spot against a soft opponent. Portland is the weaker expansion side and is dead last in the WNBA in rebounding (27.0/gm, got crushed 45-29 on the glass by Indiana), one of the two worst defensive ratings in the league and last in 3-point defense. Moreover, they just waived three players and activated three replacements.
Los Angeles Sparks -8.5
WNBA · 8:o0 ET · Total · Los Angeles @ Las Vegas · @ 51.75 cents · 1u
Las Vegas beat Los Angeles by 27 on May 10 on the road. Tonight they come home on a 4 game win streak with an average margin of victory of 16 points per game.