04 / Track Record

Track Record of Published Insights.

Updated daily
Last refresh · 2026-05-26
— positions · — days
What this is

We are a quantitative market-making and trading firm. We don't sell picks, and we couldn't publish every position if we wanted to. But the picks we do publish get logged here, win or lose, in the order they ran. We don't curate this list. If we shared the trade, it shows up below. The research we share explains some of the reasons why we liked a position. This page proves whether the why held up.

Total P&L
$0

Cumulative profit across published positions.

$0 of capital deployed; $0 returned.

Win rate
0.0%
— To make money over time we need to win more often than the average contract price — that's the — threshold. We are sitting — percentage points above it.
Expected value per $1.00
+0.0¢
The average profit we are currently making on every dollar we put at risk. This is a per-position figure — not an annual return.
Chart 01

Running P&L.

Our running profit-and-loss across the published positions, traced day by day. The line starts at zero and adds (or subtracts) each day's net result on top of the day before. Filled area helps the eye see the cumulative gain; we mark the biggest and worst single days. Every dollar plotted here corresponds to a real position settled at a real price — no paper trading, no theoretical fills.

From the published ledger
— positions · — days
Chart 02

Win rate, converging.

Our running win rate, recalculated after every settled position. Early results are inherently volatile — a single win or loss can swing the calculation — but as the denominator grows, the rate begins to stabilize. The dashed line is the dollar-weighted average implied probability of our positions — the win rate we'd need to break even given the prices we paid. As long as our line sits above the dashed one, the published picks are profitable.

Current · —%
Break-even · —
Today

Where we sit, right now.

The same edge, viewed at three time horizons: today's slate, the current win/loss run, and total coverage of the ledger.

Live
Breakdown 01

By sport.

The same edge isn't evenly distributed. Different sports have different market efficiencies, different research moats, different sample sizes. Each card shows win rate, the average implied probability we paid for, dollar P&L, and edge per dollar. Where the edge per position is large, our research is doing more lifting than the market gave us credit for.

Live · from the ledger
Breakdown 02

By market type.

Edge per dollar wagered, sliced by the kind of contract we bought. The vertical line at zero is where our research and the market's price meet. Distance to the right is profit per dollar wagered.

Live · from the ledger
Ledger

Day by day.

The full record of every published slate, newest first. Each row is one day's net result — a compact summary of the picks, record, and cumulative running total.

Live from Ghost · — settled · — open
Date Picks Leagues Record Win rate P/L Cumulative
Loading from Ghost…
Methodology

How we keep this honest.

Every position we publish is logged at the time of entry, with the contracts purchased and the average price paid. No paper trading. No closing-line theatre. The fill is what we got.

How to read these numbers

You won't find an annualized return on this page, and that's deliberate. Our work isn't a buy-and-hold position; it's a stream of discrete events that resolve in hours and free the capital to fund the next position.

The break-even threshold

The win-rate threshold on this page is the dollar-weighted average implied probability of every position we have entered — the win rate we would need to exactly break even given the prices we paid. Sitting above it is profit; sitting below it is loss.

What's not included

We do not include hedges or partial exits in this ledger — only the published position, settled at the contract's final outcome. We do not include trades that were not shared in the newsletter. If we shared the trade, it's here.