The Edge is in
the Why.

Oklahoma City +3.5

NBA · 8:30 ET · Spread · Oklahoma City @ San Antonio · @ 57.65 cents · 1u

OKC has been the best team in the league all season and has proven itself comfortable as small road dogs in tight games. Pay for the extra point.

In what projects to be a coin-flip game, 3.5 points have value.

The talent gap is closer to a coin-flip than the market implies and OKC should be able to stay within 3.5 or win outright (if Wemby can be forced into foul trouble).

OKC's defensive pressure is a structural advantage.

OKC forces a league-leading 16.3% TOV%, while SAS is roughly league average at both forcing turnovers and protecting the ball. A 3.3% turnover gap creates roughly 4 extra possessions per game, and in a playoff Game 3 with a defense specifically designed to disrupt, turnovers tend to compound.

SGA's ability to reach the free-throw line provides stability.

SGA averages 25.0 FTA attempts per game in his 30+ point outings. Spurs perimeter defenders (Castle, Fox if healthy, Vassell) can contain drives but will likely struggle to do so without fouling.

Oklahoma City vs San Antonio Over 215.5

NBA · 8:30 ET · Total · Oklahoma City @ San Antonio · @ 58.79 cents · 1.5u

The two games of this series have hit 237 and 235 for an average of 236. The market is asking you to believe the defenses tighten by 20 points.

Season-long efficiency profiles project a high scoring affair.

Both teams' regular-season offensive ratings (116+) at the projected pace of 102 possessions produce an expected total of 235-238 (exactly where both games 1 and 2 landed).

7 Head-to-Head data points suggest the line is too conservative.

These teams have played each other 7 times this season, with the lowest total being 217 on January 13th, and an average total of 222 and a median of 227.

There are structural reasons to expect offensive resilience.

OKC's turnover-to-transition pipeline and offensive philosophy (37 PPG transition + dribble penetration) and SGA's ability to get to the free-throw line should help resist the market's expectation that Game 3 will have significantly reduced scoring.

Chicago Cubs ML

MLB · 2:20ET · Moneyline · Astros vs Cubs · @ 59.71 cents · 1u

The Cubs have lost 5 straight and have only 1 win in their last 10, but there are structural reasons for a bounce back.

The Astros are without their starting middle infield and catcher.

The Astros will be without Altuve, Correa, Pena and Diaz. The wRC+ 104.5 we'd assign to a healthy Houston line-up is more like a 88. Yordan Alvarez remains a threat – but he is batting in a line-up that is hitting 0.218 around him.

Arrighetti (Astros SP) isn't as good as his metrics suggest.

Arrighetti's 2.49 ERA is misleading. He walks 5.40 hitters per nine innings – one of the highest in MLB this season, and he'll have to face a patient Cub's lineup (11% team walk rate – 2nd highest in MLB).

Taillon (Cubs SP) isn't as bad as his metrics suggest and the weather will protect against his biggest weakness.

Taillon has a catastrophic ERA (7.60) but his peripherals are better than that; indeed, his xFIP is almost identical to Arrighetti's (4.71 v. 4.69). Taillon has just been HR-unlucky. He has given up 26 HR in 65 IP, but his worst performances have been in ideal hitters weather (75 degrees with wind blowing out). Today with 12 mph winds blowing in and temps in the low 50s, Wrigley Field will be about as pitcher friendly as it gets.

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

MLB · 6:40 ET · Spread · Cleveland vs Philadelphia · @ 44.72 · 1u

When the favorite has the elite SP, the rested pen and a favorable contact profile, the runline is the way to play the game.

Sanchez (Phillies SP) has the profile to silence the Guardians.

Assuming the Phillies can get to Williams (Guardians SP), Sanchez's sinker-changeup-slider mix should neutralize RHHs and dominate LHHs, leaving the bottom half of Cleveland's projected order (which is likely to feature 5-6 LHHs) structurally outmatched and leaving Ramirez and Hoskins as the only meaningful threats.

Williams (Guardians SP) could be exposed by the top of the Phillies order.

Williams is a legitimately good arm (3.09 xFIP, 3.25 SIERA, 10.77K/9) but he gives up a lot of HRs (1.4 HR/9, 13.6% barrel rate against) and he's faced just one elite offense in his last five starts. The lefty bats at the top of the Phillies order (Schwarber, harper, Marsh, Stott) have the contact profile that has hurt Williams in the past.

Philadelphia Phillies First 5 Innings

MLB · 16:40 ET · First 5 Innings · Cleveland vs Philadelphia · @ 53.75 cents· 1u

Focus on First 5 Innings isolates Sanchez v. Williams mismatch.

New York Yankees First 5 Innings

MLB · 7:05 ET · First 5 Innings · Tampa Bay vs New York Y · @ 52.05 cents · 1u

Garret Cole at even money. Our model has the Yankees ahead through 5 innings 57.9% of the time.

Focusing on the first 5 innings is the best way to isolate Cole v. Martinez.

Returning from Tommy John surgery, Cole is likely to be capped somewhere between 4-5 innings, but given that he flashed a 99.6 mph fastball in his final rehab start on May 16th that should be enough to establish a Yankee edge early.

Martinez (Rays SP) is poorly suited to face the Yankees' LH power.

Martinez is a steady, reliable, low-K, contact-allowing pitcher designed to eat innings, but his vulnerability is hard contact. He gives up 1.1 HR per 9 and Yankee stadium's 314-foot right-field wall is the wrong park for him to face the Yankees' left-handed power (Rice, Bellinger).

Toronto Blue Jays ML

MLB · 7:07 ET · Moneyline · Pittsburgh vs Toronto · @ 62.67 cents · 1u

This is the cleanest starting pitcher match-up on the slate, resulting in a projected win probability of 67% v. market implied win-rate of 62%.

Gausman (Blue Jays SP) vs Chandler (Pirates SP) is a structural mismatch.

Gausman owns a 3.45 xFIP, 1.81 BB/9 and a 4.69K/BB ratio. In contrast, Chandler sports a 5.66 xFIP and has allowed 9 HR in 51.6 IP. Chandler's 9.24 K/9 suggests his stuff is real, but his command has not arrived. His 7.15 BB/9 makes every inning a high-pitch-count affair and he has 1 quality start in 13 career tries.

Pittsburgh's bullpen may not be able to provide relief.

Pittsburgh's bullpen has been used hard the past three days (Soto, Lawrence and Ramirez all pitched yesterday), compounding the risk that Chandler brings to the mound.

Toronto Blue Jays -1.5

MLB · 7:07 ET · Runline · Pittsburgh vs Toronto · @ 44.72 cents · 1u

Leveraged way to play the Guasman v. Chandler mismatch, also aided by chance of insurance runs late from a depleted Pirates bullpen.

Pittsburgh v. Toronto Over 7.5 runs

MLB · 7:07 ET · Total Runs · Pittsburgh v. Toronto · @56.74 cents · 1u

Similar to above. Model projects 8.5 runs scored, with upside skew due to Chandler's lack of control and data which suggests Varsho, Vlad Jr., Clement and Springer are poised to punch above their season rate.

Baltimore Orioles ML

MLB · 7:15 ET · Moneyline · Detroit vs Baltimore · @ 57.73 cents · 1u

Detroit has lost 9 of 10 and the heart of their order has been decimated by injuries. They just aren't scoring runs.

Detroit is missing the entire middle of their order and can't score.

Carpenter, Torres, Baez, McKinstry and Meadows are all out. All 5 started on opening day. The impact has been significant as the Tigers have averaged only 1.8R/G in their last 5 and 2.1 R/G in their last 10, and were shut out twice by Cleveland.

Neither pitcher is dominant, but Bassitt (BAL) has a structural advantage over Flaherty (DET).

Bassitt's 3.42% barrel rate is roughly 2.5x better than Flaherty's at 8.87%. In a park that already favors right-handed hitters (108 HR factor for RHH), Flaherty's hitter friendly barrel rate and 1.67 HR/9 should set up well for the heart of the Orioles line-up, especially Alonso.

Baltimore Orioles -1.5

MLB · 7:15 ET · Runline · Detroit vs Baltimore · @ 38.63 cents· 0.75u

Leveraged way to play the Orioles advantage and Flaherty's blow-up risk.

Detroit vs Baltimore Under 8.5 runs

MLB · 7:15 ET · Total Runs · Detroit vs Baltimore · @ 51.75 cents · 1u

Essentially even money way to exploit Detroit's lack of offense.

Atlanta Braves -1.5

MLB · 17:15 ET · First 5 Innings · Washington vs Atlanta · @ 52.75 cents · 1u

Mikolas (Washington SP) profiles as one of the worst rotation arms in baseball and matches up poorly against Atlanta's LH power.

Mikolas is worth betting against, irrespective of who the Braves send to the mound.

Mikolas comes in with a 7.16 ERA, zero quality starts, and the 2nd worst home-run rate among qualified starters (2.39 HR/9).

Atlanta's left-handed power should match-up particularly well against Mikolas at Truist Park.

Harris, Olson and Smith give the Braves 3 legitimate left-handed power threats against a pitcher who allows hard contact at an 11.8% barrel clip in a ball park with a notably shorter porch in right field contributing to a 104 LHH HR factor.

Atlanta's SP has not yet been named, but its bullpen is rested and elite.

Suarez (0.70 ERA), Iglesias (0.93 ERA) and Lee (0.72 ERA) are all rested and should be available, while Washington's closer threw 56 pitches on Wednesday – suggesting in the event that Mikolas-survives, Atlanta's late-game arms can still close out at a higher rate than Washington's.

Washington vs Atlanta Over 8.5 runs

MLB · 17:32 ET · Moneyline · Washington vs Atlanta · @ 55.72 cents · 1u

Mikolas' blow-up probability asymmetrically lifts the over distribution.

Mikolas' blowup probability is real.

Mikolas 's blowup probability – defined as existing before the fifth with 5+ runs allowed – sits at roughly 40%, well above league baseline.

Seattle Mariners ML

MLB · 7:40 ET · MoneyLine · Seattle vs Kansas city · @ 54.75 cents · 1u

Seattle has the pitcher, the lineup and the form.

Gilbert (Seattle SP) vs Cameron (Kansas City SP) is a structural mismatch.

Gilbert profiles with a 3.50 xFIP, elite command and top quartile stuff and whiff metrics (12.8% whiff and 29.4% CSW (Called Strike + Whiff). In contrast, Cameron's 4.38 xFIP translates into a roughly one run advantage to the Mariners and his barrel rate against rate (11.7%) suggest he hasn't been unlucky; he has been hit hard.

The Mariners come in hot and the Royals cold.

Kansas City's offense is in a deep slump (Pasquantino at 0.190, Perez at 0.223, Collins at 0.198 and India at 0.177). They have a wRC+93 and only averaged 1.8 runs per game in their last 5 games and are in the middle of a 1-9 stretch where they've averaged just 2.8 runs per game – all suggesting they can't bail out a struggling starting pitcher. In contrast, the Mariners come in with a wRC+104 and put up 24 runs last week against Houston and Chicago.

Seattle Mariners First 5 Innings

MLB · 7:40 ET · First Five Innings · Seattle vs Kansas City · @ 45.73 cents · 1u

Best way to take advantage of the starting pitcher differential.

A's ML

MLB · 9:40 ET · Moneyline · A's vs San Diego · @ 47.74 cents · 1u

Our model suggests the wrong team is favored. The market is paying us a 9% EV cushion to take the better offense with the better SP peripherals.

Oakland's offense has been more effective than San Diego's by almost every measure.

Oakland wRC+ 103 outclasses San Diego's wRC+ 88.6. They average 5.17 R/G v. San Diego's 4.78 R/G, and their peripherals 0.263/0.337/0.440 are significantly better than San Diego's 0.238/0.307/0.483.

Buehler's (San Diego's SP) metrics have significantly declined and the A's are structured to take advantage.

Buehler's 7.2% whiff rate is bottom-decile for MLB starters with his innings (and down significantly from his 12% career average). And the A's have a lineup that wears down weak-strike pitchers via discipline (9.3% BB rate) and contact . Led by Langeliers, Kurtz, Rooker and Muncy, the A's should make contact and create traffic on the base paths.

Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5

MLB · 9:40 ET · Runline · Colorado vs Arizona · @ 50.75 cents · 1u

The starting pitcher differential plus Colorado's depleted bullpen make a cover disproportionately likely.

The starting pitcher disparity is more lopsided than the ERAs suggest.

Sugano (Colorado SP)'s ERA looks respectable at 3.65 but every quality-of-contact metric – expected ERA (7.22) and barrel rate against (15.5%) – suggests he is one of the weakest starters in the league this year. Conversely, Soroka (Arizona's SP)'s 4.49 ERA hides a strikeout-per-inning rate (10.1 K/9) and a chase rate (37%) that grade elite.

Chicago WS ML

MLB · 10:15 ET · Total · Chicago WS vs San Francisco · @ 53.75 cents · 1u

Chicago has the more proven starter and the healthier bullpen against a Giants lineup playing shorthanded.

Both starters have elite peripherals but Martin (Chicago SP) has demonstrated it over 2.5x the innings.

Martin (Chicago SP) and McDonald (San Francisco SP) look similar on the surface, xFIP 3.00 v. 2.78, but McDonald's sample size is less than half of Martin's.

Chicago's lineup is healthier and brings real power.

Chicago's lineup sports a wRC+ 104.8 and Murakami (18 HR), Montgomer (16 HR) and Vargas (12 HR) are all threats to go deep. In contrast, San Francisco's lineup (wRC+88.5) is structurally below the league average and missing Ramos, Bader and Susac to the IL with Adames and Lee day-to-day.

In what projects to be a tight affair, the San Francisco bullpen looks particularly fragile.

The Giants lost 3 high-leverage arms to the IL and their closer (Walker) has three blown saves and a 4.95 ERA. In a tight game that goes to the 7th, San Francisco will be exposed in a way that Chicago is not.

Dallas vs Atlanta Under 170.5 points

WNBA · 7:30 ET · Total · Dallas vs Atlanta · @ 44.72 cents · 1u

This is a rematch of a May 12 game where Atlanta used its defensive length, rebounding and a grinding tempo to hold Dallas to a season-low 72 points and a 149-point first meeting. Even with regression, 170.5 provides cushion.

Connecticut vs Seattle Under 165.5 points

MLB · 10:15 ET · Total · Connecticut vs Seattle · @ 52.75 cents · 1u